The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) forecasts export growth of 8-9% for Hong Kong in 2026, according to figures released today. This projection follows better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance and is detailed in the HKTDC's annual Export Outlook report. The sustained growth is expected to be driven primarily by robust demand for AI-related electronics products, which is crucial given that the electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value.
According to the recently-released HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, 53.2% of exporters see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. These upbeat figures are notable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025, when many exporters frontloaded orders to complete shipments before anticipated US tariffs.
Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade. "With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns," Fan said. However, she acknowledged that uncertainties remain as business leaders worldwide reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages under varying tariff structures.
Fan explained that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026, which puts China-based suppliers on par with Southeast Asian counterparts while giving them significant advantage over countries subject to higher rates. This trade environment is detailed in the Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report.
The HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 shows both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and Expectation Index (51.9) remaining above the 50-point watershed level, indicating expected future export growth. Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, noted that Asia remains the focus for expansion plans, with 42.0% of respondents prioritizing the Chinese Mainland market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%).
Detailed analysis of the survey reveals positive sentiments for major markets, with the Market Expectation Sub-Index showing significant growth potential for the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and ASEAN bloc (57.0), while the US declined to 38.0 due to ongoing trade uncertainties. Industry sectors with expansionary expectations include Jewellery (54.8), Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6) and Equipment/Materials (51.1).
Despite overall positive sentiments, the survey identifies potential challenges including rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to economic slowdown (38.2%). The complete findings are available in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 report.
For business and technology leaders, these projections indicate that Hong Kong's export economy is positioned for continued expansion, with AI-related electronics serving as a key growth driver. The findings suggest that companies with exposure to Asian markets, particularly China and ASEAN countries, may benefit from favorable trade conditions and growing demand for technology products. However, organizations must navigate ongoing cost pressures and logistical challenges while capitalizing on the shifting global trade landscape.
