A new scientific statement from the American Heart Association projects that nearly 6 in 10 women in the United States will have some type of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by 2050, a sharp increase driven primarily by rising rates of high blood pressure. The statement, published in Circulation, forecasts significant growth in CVD prevalence and associated economic burdens, with the total annual cost currently exceeding $200 billion.
The report, titled Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050 in Women: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association, indicates that by 2050, nearly 60% of women will have high blood pressure, more than 60% will have obesity, and over 25% will have diabetes. These health factors are major contributors to cardiovascular conditions like heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke.
Perhaps more concerning is the projected rise among younger women. By 2025, nearly one-third of women aged 22-44 will have some form of cardiovascular disease, compared to less than one in four currently. Diabetes rates in this age group are expected to more than double, from 6% to nearly 16%. The trend also impacts younger generations, with nearly 32% of girls aged 2-19 projected to have obesity by 2050, an increase of more than 12%.
The increases are not evenly distributed. The projections indicate some of the largest increases will occur among women of color. By 2050, high blood pressure will increase the most among Hispanic women, while obesity will increase the most among Asian women. Prevalence rates will remain highest among Black women, with more than 70% projected to have high blood pressure, more than 71% to have obesity, and nearly 28% to have diabetes.
Dr. Karen E. Joynt Maddox, volunteer chair of the statement writing group, emphasized the scale of the challenge, noting that more than 62 million U.S. women are already living with cardiovascular disease. "Our estimates indicate that if we stay on the current path, these numbers will grow substantially over the next 25 to 30 years," she stated. The statement builds upon prior work by the Association, including the 2024 presidential advisory Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease.
Dr. Stacey E. Rosen, volunteer president of the American Heart Association, highlighted that cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for women and their number one health risk. "The impact is even greater among those experiencing adverse social determinants of health such as poverty, low literacy, rural residence and other psychosocial stressors," she said. The report serves as a critical tool for identifying trends to enable meaningful changes.
The statement outlines that the most efficient way to reduce CVD prevalence is through prevention, yet current efforts are deemed inadequate. It calls for a multi-faceted approach focusing on health behaviors, management of chronic conditions, optimal clinical care, and attention to social and demographic factors. The American Heart Association's Life’s Essential 8™ framework—encompassing diet, activity, sleep, weight, cholesterol, blood sugar, blood pressure, and smoking cessation—is presented as a foundational prescription for health, with guidance tailored for different stages of a woman's life.
Despite the concerning projections, the report is not deterministic. Simulation studies cited within it suggest that a 10% reduction in key health factors combined with a 20% improvement in their control could reduce CVD and stroke events by 17% to 23%. More aggressive goals, like halving obesity rates and doubling risk factor control, could reduce events by 30% to 40%. The authors conclude that in an era of digital health and artificial intelligence, healthcare professionals have new tools, but systemic changes are urgently needed to implement effective prevention strategies across the life course.
