While industry narratives focus on 2026 as a potential "Great Housing Reset," Courtney Poulos, founder and CEO of ACME Real Estate in Los Angeles, contends that current market stagnation stems from more fundamental economic factors. Poulos dismisses recent tariff impacts as negligible in her market, stating that contractors have not seen meaningful cost increases. Instead, she identifies the trillions of dollars printed during the COVID-19 pandemic as a primary driver of inflated housing prices, creating a significant affordability gap.
The core issue, according to Poulos, is a pricing lock created by the pandemic boom. Homeowners who purchased with sub-3% mortgages are now reluctant to sell at a loss, while buyers face the same homes at 6-7% interest rates, making them unaffordable. This mismatch is what truly constrains inventory, not political headlines about tariffs. Poulos emphasizes that the solution lies in creative financing and realistic rate adjustments rather than waiting for a dramatic market reset.
Poulos points to mechanisms like rate buy-downs, where developers use builder credits to prepay mortgage rates, offering buyers lower initial payments. She notes that recent rates in the fives on products like seven-year jumbo ARMs are beginning to attract buyers who were previously on the sidelines. The challenge, she explains, is finding a balance where rates are low enough to unlock inventory without triggering renewed inflation. More information on market trends can be found on her podcast, The Clean Close.
Contrary to doom-and-gloom predictions, Poulos reports cautious optimism in the Los Angeles market. She has observed an uptick in buyer enthusiasm extending into the typically quiet fall season, with buyers tired of waiting and sellers becoming more willing to negotiate. In one recent example, a property received 19 offers but sold for $300,000 over asking rather than the $400,000 typical in a hotter market, indicating buyers have a ceiling defined by borrowing costs.
Poulos concludes that the market is not heading for a crash or a dramatic reset but is instead normalizing as participants adapt to reality. Buyers are returning, sellers are adjusting expectations, and incremental rate improvements are facilitating deals. She expresses a fundamental belief in homeownership as a primary wealth-building tool, advocating for a market where the American dream remains accessible. The focus, therefore, should shift from speculative narratives to the tangible economic levers of interest rates and financing creativity.
