A new risk prediction tool can accurately identify stroke survivors with the highest risk for developing dementia within a decade of having a stroke, according to a large Canadian study to be presented at the American Stroke Association’s International Stroke Conference 2026. The research, which analyzed health records for nearly 50,000 adults, aims to create a practical, bedside tool to stratify patients into different levels of dementia risk for research purposes.
Lead study author Raed A. Joundi, M.D., D.Phil., M.Sc., noted that about one in three adults develops dementia after a stroke over the long term. The new tool uses underlying health, stroke characteristics, and risk factors to categorize individuals into five levels of estimated risk. Those in the highest risk category have a 50% probability of dementia over ten years, compared to a 5% probability for those in the lowest category.
Key factors linked to higher dementia risk include older age, pre-stroke disability, greater post-stroke disability, having an intracerebral hemorrhage rather than an ischemic stroke, diabetes, cognitive symptoms during hospitalization, and depression. For transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients, additional factors include needing help with daily activities prior to the TIA.
The study's current focus is on stratifying patients for research studies and clinical trials of dementia prevention, rather than for immediate clinical decision-making. Joundi emphasized that while preventing recurrent stroke remains crucial, more attention must be paid to dementia development, as it is more common long-term than another stroke. He highlighted the need for new, targeted interventions alongside healthy lifestyle choices and vascular risk factor control.
American Stroke Association volunteer expert Deborah A. Levine, M.D., M.P.H., who was not involved in the study, stated that dementia after a stroke is very difficult for patients and families, and effective treatments are lacking. She described the study as well-done and noted the tool could make research faster, potentially getting new treatments to stroke survivors sooner. The study is an abstract presented at a scientific meeting; its findings are considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. More information on stroke is available at www.stroke.org.
