Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported second-quarter 2026 results that highlight a visible operating inflection, with positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA despite revenue coming in below consensus. The company's revenue rose 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, slightly missing the $68.6 million consensus estimate. However, normalized EPS of negative $0.11 beat the consensus of negative $0.24, reflecting stronger underlying performance.
The quarter's key drivers included quarterly 45Z credit recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics. These factors more than offset weaker India revenue, which was impacted by timing of OMC tenders. Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a $3.4 million loss in the prior-year quarter, while adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a significant turnaround from negative $5.8 million.
Dairy RNG remains the clearest growth driver. Sales volume increased 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Seven approved LCFS pathways with an average negative carbon intensity of -380 are already improving credit economics. Six additional pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance, with the MVR (mechanical vapor recompression) unit targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates this could generate approximately $32 million of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027.
Despite the operational progress, the balance sheet remains a primary constraint. The company ended the quarter with $1.0 million of unrestricted cash and $415.9 million of total debt. Refinancing progress is critical to translating the improved operating performance into durable free cash flow. Investors and industry observers will be watching for updates on debt restructuring and capital allocation strategies.
The positive operating results underscore Aemetis's ability to execute on its RNG and renewable fuels strategy, but the financial leverage presents an ongoing challenge. As the company moves toward higher production and profitability, addressing the balance sheet will be essential to unlocking long-term shareholder value.
